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Riskiest Assumption Testing (RAT)

Riskiest Assumption Testing (RAT)

Aliaksei Khavanski

Expert Contributor

March 30, 2026

Last Updated

RAT is a sharper version of MVP thinking. Instead of building the smallest product, you isolate the one assumption that would kill your product if it's wrong — and test only that.

"Anything not validated by data or interviews is an assumption." — from MVP notes

That's the starting point. Everything your product is built on that hasn't been validated is an assumption. List them all. Then ask: which one, if wrong, would make everything else irrelevant?

That's your riskiest assumption. Test it first, cheaply, before committing resources to building.

The RAT process:

  1. List every assumption the product depends on
  2. Rate each by: what's the damage if this is wrong?
  3. Design the cheapest possible test — a customer interview, a fake landing page, a concierge MVP, a shadow button
  4. Set a success threshold before you start (not after)
  5. Run it, measure it, decide

The difference between RAT and MVP: an MVP can still be a product. A RAT experiment often doesn't need to be a product at all — it just needs to generate the right signal.

I've used this most when a stakeholder was certain about a user behavior that I was skeptical of. Instead of building a feature to "find out," a short round of user interviews or a fake door test answered the question in a week.

Exam tip: PSPO II scenarios often test whether the PO can identify the most valuable experiment before committing to a full sprint of building. RAT is the concept behind those questions.

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